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Prediction for CME (2024-04-17T21:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-17T21:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30127/-1
CME Note: Faint filament eruption to the SE seen in SOHO LASCO C2 and a few frames of C3. The source is a filament eruption starting at 2024-04-17T20:04Z from AR 3638, best observed in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 as outflowing dark material, deflecting southeastward as it travels. This eruption is paired with very a impulsive double peaked C9.0 and C9.7 flare best seen in SDO AIA 131. Slight dimming and field line movement observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 as well.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-21T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30133/1
Model Inputs:
2024-04-17T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-21.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=378.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T05:27Z
2024-04-18T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=349.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T12:30Z
2024-04-18T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=438.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T14:31Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-21T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T08:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-26T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 64.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-04-18T21:12Z

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